The latest analysis by Glassnode suggests that the worst of the sell-offs could be concluded, but the market still needs time to recover.
“Extreme” demand at the $20,000 price point for Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have forced the coins back into the hands of investors who care less about price while creating a new realized price level.
In the latest The Week OnChain Newsletter published on Monday, Glassnode’s UkuriaOC pointed to “extreme demand” around the $20,000 region, noting that each psychological price level from $40,000 to $30,000 to $20,000 creates a new group of short-term holders (STHs).
The Glassnode analyst noted that much of the supply that new STHs bought during that drawdown has not been sold even though prices are significantly down. This may be due to less price-sensitive buyers or those who care more about Bitcoin fundamentals than investment gains, driving demand.
Between late April through June, the BTC price has fallen 55% from $40,000 to a low of about $18,100, according to CoinGecko.
Glassnode wrote that this suggests the newly-minted STHs are price insensitive buyers with more confidence in Bitcoin, adding that their conversion from a STH to a long-term holder (LTH), who does not sell for at least 155 days, would help confirm this:
“It would be constructive to see these STH held coins at the $40k-$50K level start to mature to LTH status over coming weeks, helping to bolster this argument.”
In this current bear market, confirmed LTHs have locked in nearly 400 days straight of yearly profitability, performing better than 30-day profitability.
This is nearly the same duration that LTHs experienced during the 2018 bear market. Glassnode wrote that this suggests losses are being locked in by LTHs which, if the previous argument holds, means that the new buyers have less price sensitivity than the cohort who sold, meaning they could become the newest group of LTHs.
Another point of note in the report is that “unprecedented forced selling” from crypto companies amid mass liquidations and bankruptcies created conditions ripe for a relief pump.
The report concludes by stating that while the “worst of the capitulation may be over,” BTC could remain in this low range for some time as the cost basis for new coin buyers has diverged below the realized price for only about 17 days straight. Previous bear cycles have endured low divergences between 248 and 575 days.
BTC has retreated 3.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $21,146 at the time of writing.